Posts by Lucas Downey

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Extreme Overbought Conditions

Extreme Overbought Conditions

Growth stocks are making highs daily. One of the greatest risk-on environments is unfolding before our eyes. You need to prepare for extreme overbought conditions. Todayโ€™s message is simple: Not only are new all-time highs coming for markets, the evidence points to a sustained rally ahead. Letโ€™s rewind the tape. One month ago, I warned… Read more »

USA Credit Downgrade & Forward Projections

USA Credit Downgrade & Forward Projections

The epic rally stalled. Many are describing the setback as an elaborate unsolvable debt spiral. I think itโ€™s simplerโ€ฆand it all kicked off last Friday. Letโ€™s unpack Moodyโ€™s USA credit downgrade and make evidence-based forward projections. On Friday, Moodyโ€™s downgraded the United States credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing the one-notch downgradeโ€ฆreflects the increase… Read more »

Brand New Leadership & Mid-Cap Surge

Brand New Leadership & Mid-Cap Surge

A month ago, stocks crashed. Pundits claimed equities were โ€œuninvestable.โ€ Instead, the unthinkable happened. Brand new leadership and a mid-cap surge has emerged, and this breath-taking rally has legs to run. Consider this: Estimates suggest that 80% of forest fires are human caused. Whatโ€™s important is what occurs once the flames burn out. Nature eventually… Read more »

Forced Buying

Forced Buying

Just 3 weeks ago, the pundits had you believe stocks were damned. Today the crowd is stunned. Weโ€™re witnessing 7 consecutive days of green. Extreme capitulation often triggers forced buying. Headline tape bombs took us on an adventure in April. In no particular order, hereโ€™s what I vividly remember: Liberation Day sent equities plunging โ€“… Read more »

Volatility Crash

Volatility Crash

Stocks may have bottomed. Capitulation appears long gone. Thereโ€™s a rare volatility crash signal also appearing. Recapping tariff headlines is futile. One minute thereโ€™s no deal, then thereโ€™s a deal, and after that thereโ€™s another wrinkle to sort through. Good luck connecting those dots. A better use of time and effort is studying patterns of… Read more »

DEATH CROSS

Itโ€™s been a challenging few weeks. Stocks are falling. Investors are scared. Then we find out that the S&P 500 formed a death cross. Tariffs are causing extreme uncertainty. Arguably the most important company in the world, NVIDIA (NVDA), is the latest headline casualty. The company announced a multibillion-dollar charge related to chips sold to… Read more »

15 Extreme Charts for April 2025

15 Extreme Charts for April 2025

When the world is upside down, keep it simple. Rarely do we witness volatility and uncertainty like now. Here are 15 extreme charts for April 2025. Weโ€™ve been loud and clear about the breath-taking datapoints recently. We noted the weakest breadth dating back to October 2023. Then we suggested that the tariff trade war could… Read more »